Fauls Positive

The Daily Mail has a penchant for running utterly bizarre “what if” stories. Before Christmas, they ran a hilarious story about Argentina invading the Falklands again in 2012, a story they described as “terrifyingly plausible”. Some of the corkers contained therein are Nick Clegg tossing the Tories to go into coalition with Labour, catapulting Ed Milliband into the premiership (Not only would such a coalition not have a majority, but I think it’d take hell itself freezing over for Clegg to end the coalition now), England being thrown out of the Euro 2012 football tournament (the horror) and, best of all – and you have to imagine someone draped in a Union flag, waving their hands despairingly in front of their chin and with tears springing to their eyes – Prince Harry was captured and wasn’t sent home in time for the Olympics! I’m not making light of the very real and often tense dispute that Argentina and the UK have with regards to the Falklands, but really, the chances of them being stupid enough to mount another invasion seem to this (very) amateur observer to be slim indeed.

Following on from that, they today ran an absolutely cracking piece on the dire consequences of Scottish Independence, raising the spectre of the long-dead (or at least moribund) Orkney and Shetland Independence movements, Russia blocking our membership of the UN (Completely and utterly preposterous, as when Russia’s close ally Serbia had Montenegro vote to leave their union in 2006, it was more than happy to allow Montenegro to join the UN – so why would they not accept the Independence of Scotland from the UK?), Wendy Alexander being elected Scottish Prime Minister and the general economic collapse of Scotland. It’s a wonderfully absurd (and quite offensive) fantasy even less likely to happen than their kooky Falklands situation.

Having read these, I figured if the Daily Mail can do it, why can’t I? Of course, I haven’t the – ahem – “skill” of their lunatics contributors, so I’m sure this won’t be half as much fun. And please, bear in mind this is a deliberate parody of the Daily Mail’s doom and gloom style, though I simply cannot bring myself to be as gloomy as them. I call it “Europe: 2020.”

Late 2012; After much wrangling, the Scottish and UK Parliaments agree that the referendum will be held in autumn 2014 and will feature a single “Yes/No” question. The franchise is extended to 16 & 17 year olds and in return the Electoral Commission is charged with oversight of the referendum – though EU and UN observers are to be present on polling day.

July 2013; Croatia completes accession to the EU, amidst a general improvement in the EU’s situation.

Mid 2013; With support for Independence on the rise UKIP and the English Democrats, along with a small number of far right Eurosceptic Tory MP defectors, form the new “English Sovereigntist Party” dedicated to UK Federalism and withdrawal from the EU with Nigel Farage as leader. The party records significant, though not election winning, vote shares in opinion polling right from it’s inception.

March 2014; In the run-up to the referendum, the SNP, Greens and SSP produce a joint blueprint for a Scottish Constitution.

June 2014; Though the de Rupo Government in Belgium manages to see it’s term through, the results in the federal elections are disappointing for them – the New Flemish Alliance increases it’s share of the vote, winning enough seats to precipitate the dissolution of the Belgian state. The imminent collapse of Belgium causes some analysts to predict that it is merely the first domino to fall in a series of events that will significantly change the face Western Europe. They are soon to be proved right.

October 2014; Scotland votes 63% – 37% in favour of Independence, and the Scottish Government begins negotiations with the UK Government.

November 2014; The EU congratulates Scotland on it’s “free, fair and convincing vote in favour of Independence” and states that Scottish accession to the EU will be accelerated on the grounds that it was already a member as part of the UK and meets all criteria.

February 2015; Using the UK Government’s own statistics which showed between 1981 and 2011 Scotland accrued a debt £19 billion less than that portion of the UK debt they were liable for at the time , Scottish negotiators secure a significant concession on what portion of the debt they will assume on Independence – £76.5 billion. This is more than the £53 billion Scotland actually accrued, but less than the £100 billion that would have been the case in a purely per-capita division. In return, they agree that the UK’s nuclear deterrent be allowed a three year grace period allowing it to stay in Scotland whilst a suitable replacement base is found and/or built.

April 2015; Whilst negotiations were happening at the highest level, the Scottish Parliament was crafting a constitution, using the election blueprint as a starting point and calling the public and constitutional experts to contribute to the process. Having completed a constitution – containing, amongst other things, support for human rights, a declaration of non-aggression, the nuclear-free status of Scotland post-Trident and the sovereignty of the Scottish people – it is put out to referendum, given approval and Scotland becomes Independent, joining the EU and the UN shortly after.

Meanwhile in Spain, inspired by the success of the Scottish referendum Catalonia and the Basque Country (consisting of the autonomous community of the Basque Country and the chartered community of Navarre) announce their intention to hold simultaneous referendums on Independence in their respective nations in October 2015. The Spanish government concedes their right to do so under duress from the rest of the EU.

May 2015; In a similarly shocking turn of events to the SNP’s 2011 majority, the English Sovereigntist Party wins the most seats in the remaining UK Parliament, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems and the Tories. The ESP forms a minority administration – thanks to votes from the Eurosceptic wings of Labour and the Tories – and Nigel Farage becomes the new Prime Minister, announcing immediate negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

In a busy time for European Politics, Belgium completes it’s split into the two independent states of Flanders and Wallonia. In an entirely unexpected move, Brussels becomes part of neither state and is instead designated as “EU Capital”, effectively becoming a city-state.

June 2015; Concerned by the new party in Government at Westminster, the Welsh and Northern Irish Assemblies agree to a drastic step – they will dissolve themselves to force elections that will act as referendums on Welsh Independence and Irish Unification. Labour and the Lib Dems in Wales agree to campaign alongside Plaid Cymru in favour of Welsh Independence. In Northern Ireland, the formerly Unionist Parties agree that they will stand on a platform of Independence rather than Union with either England or the Republic.

September 2015; In the Welsh Assembly Elections, Plaid Cymru wins a slim majority of seats – with the support of Labour and the Lib Dems, the Welsh Assembly unilaterally declares Welsh Independence from the remaining UK.

In Northern Ireland, things go much closer to the wire – the Republican parties win more seats than the Independence parties, but not an overall majority. The Alliance Party, which campaigned for a “wait and see” position enter into an agreement with the Republicans as recognition of their popular mandate – should there be no improvement in the English position within 6 months, they will support legislation to effect a Union with the Republic.

October 2015; England completes withdrawal from the EU, causing a significant loss in international confidence in the country, with rating agencies downgrading England from it’s much vaunted AAA rating. A simultaneous recognition of the vastly improved situation in the EU rubs salt in the wound as France has it’s AAA rating restored.

In the Spanish Community referendums significant majorities (73% in the Basque Country and 68% in Catalonia) vote in favour of Independence, beginning talks with Spain on their settlement and preliminary talks with the EU on membership in the same vein as Scotland.

December 2015; Despite the support of a small part of the population and the deliberate stirring of formerly Unionist residents, attempts to get the Orkney and Shetland Isles to declare Independence from Scotland fail.

March 2016; By this point, the EPS Government in England and Northern Ireland has passed tough new laws on immigration and implemented extremely severe cuts to try and get control of their spiralling deficit – a deficit that can no longer be plugged by Scotland’s North Sea Oil. Accepting that they simply cannot support Westminster, the Alliance party acts on it’s promise to work with the Republicans on passing Unification legislation.

April 2016; The Basque Country and Catalonia complete their respective secessions from Spain, and are accepted into both the UN and the EU relatively shortly after. Wales also accedes to the EU at the same time.

In Scotland, economic figures from the first year of Independence are positive – the country runs a comparatively slender deficit of 3%, mostly caused by the costs of setting up the new state. On the back of this, Scots vote in a referendum to adopt their own currency – a position they couldn’t really help but take given that the English economy’s performance over the same period was dragging the Sterling area down.

June 2016; The Republic of Ireland and the Northern Irish Assembly agree to Irish Unification. In response to the concerns of the Protestant population, part of the agreement is that Stormont is to remain home to a devolved Northern Irish Assembly with primarily social rather than economic powers.

August 2016; The Faroe Islands declare their Independence from Denmark. Unlike most of the new states to have formed within the past two and a half years, the Faroes opt to remain out of the EU and join the EFTA.

May 2017; Two years on from Independence, Scotland’s economy is proving to be powerful – though the country is some way off matching Norway. Having put a national election off for a further year in the interests of a smooth transition to Independence, the first such election is held with the SNP – and Alex Salmond -  returned to power but requiring coalition support from other, smaller parties that made gains in the election.

April 2018; The (now) English Government’s lease on Faslane and Coulport expires. By this point, the financial situation in England is so dire it can do little but accept that it will have to decommission it’s nuclear deterrent. This is the final nail in the coffin for England’s permanent seat on the UN security council – the position was already under threat following the Celtic Secessions and the UN votes overwhelmingly to remove England from this seat.

This results in a confidence vote in the English parliament which the EPS loses and the country goes to the polls. Though the EPS manages to keep a fair number of MPs, their economic mismanagement left their credibility in tatters and a coalition of new parties – consisting of many former moderate Tories, Lib Dems and Labour members and led by David Milliband – in favour of re-applying for EU membership and advancing a British Confederation form a government.

However, the Celtic nations laugh English representatives out of their doors – post Independence (or Union in Ireland) all three have prospered, and see no attraction in forming any form of binding political alliance with bankrupt England. The EU is more measured in it’s response – it agrees to consider England for re-admittance, but as their economic situation has declined so much since 2015, they must go through the formal candidate process along with Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania.

November 2018; Following the wave of Independence that hit Western Europe and weary of 10 years of diplomatic conflict which saw international opinion steadily turn in favour of Kosovo, Serbia finally accepts Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of Independence, putting EU accession of both countries in the fast lane.

July 2019; Montenegro completes it’s accession to the EU. The number of EU member states now stands at 33. As the world is finally moving away from the economic disaster that began in 2008, the EU, China, India and Brazil are driving the world economy. In particular, the Celtic Nations have begun to approach Nordic levels of prosperity.

January 2020; England begins to close chapters in the community acquis amid a strengthening economic position thanks to the coalition government which has taken efforts to address the London imbalance and finally accepted England’s position as a regional, rather than a world, power. However, EU accession remains at least three years in the future.

See how easy it is to be as absurd as the Daily Mail? Unlike them, though, I’m not going to say this is how events are most likely to pan out. For one thing, I don’t think England is going to go to the dogs. For another, Nigel Farage certainly isn’t going to become Prime Minister! I’m pretty sure – in fact, I would go so far as to say absolutely certain – that England will do very well for itself, whether as an Independent nation or in continued union with Wales and Northern Ireland. Serbia ever accepting Kosovan Independence might be a bit optimistic, though.

On the other hand, there are a few kernels of truth in there. I do think that certain Independence movements in Europe have the potential to act as a catalyst for a wave of Independence declarations – especially if it seems Independence is working for that country. I also think that it’s well within the realms of possibility that the loss of Scottish revenue and the Clyde naval base will force Westminster to decommission their nuclear deterrent – incidentally one of the biggest advantages to the world from Scottish Independence.

Whatever may happen after the referendum – and it’s the future that we should be looking to in this debate, not the past – it would behove both sides to try and be positive about their own option, rather than negative about the other.

For all that I strongly believe in Scottish Independence, I don’t think it’s the only constitutional future for Scotland. Though I reject Devo-Max on the grounds that it would continue to see us stuck with nuclear weapons and an immoral foreign policy, I’m not averse to the idea of political union per se. The union I’m about to consider is what I’m calling the “Celtic Confederation.” This post shall be a complete flight of fancy – and why shouldn’t it be? You should always make time in politics to discuss bizarre options.

You see, sometimes I wonder what would happen if there was a massive revolution in English public opinion, and it was they who went for Independence and not Scotland. That would leave, barring further secession, a sovereign state consisting of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The more I give it thought, the more I feel I’d be happy for that kind of Union to continue. I’d likely still support Independence, but I wouldn’t initially agitate for it – I’d wait and see where the confederation went before I decided whether or not to actively support a secessionist party.

Why a Celtic Confederation?

In the previous post, I stated that my main opposition to the current United Kingdom was that it tied Scotland into a state that maintained nuclear weaponry and pursued a generally immoral and anti-European foreign policy – other important matters such as poverty and poor health I believed could be remedied by Devolution Max.

As a Celtic Confederation would resolve this issue and so long as it was a very loose confederation, I’d consider it an acceptable alternative to Independence. A loose confederation would allow individual member states maximum freedom to pursue their own economic and social policies whilst at the same time providing for mutual defence and perhaps a somewhat more influential position in international politics.

In addition, the Celtic nations are much closer in terms of population than the nations of the current UK are – no one member (regardless of who those members were) would have a population many times larger than all the others put together as is the case at the moment with England. This would prevent the outright dominance of one member.

That said, I would still far rather be fully Independent, as any form of political union does entail compromise with regards to each other’s international interests – better that we be our own sovereign states that act together internationally when it suits us all. Perhaps an intergovernmental body rather than a confederation?

Who would be a part of the Confederation?

In my hypothetical Celtic Confederation, the two most obvious members would be Scotland and Wales. Ireland (as a whole) presents a number of possibilities – a unified Ireland outside of the Confederation, a unified Ireland outside of it, a divided Ireland with one state inside or a divided Ireland with both states inside. Regardless of exact makeup, the island of Ireland would be more than welcome to join.

An invitation would also be extended to the other Celtic nations – Mann, Cornwall and even Brittany. Mann would perhaps be most likely of these to join – as a Crown Dependency, it already has significantly more sovereignty than most other Celtic nations. Cornwall would be a harder sell – but perhaps with the political upheaval in the Isles, it may choose to secede from England and join. Brittany would be by far the least likely – as part of France rather than the British Isles, it’s far harder to envisage it breaking off (or even being allowed to do so, as France has even stronger centralising tendencies than the UK) than any other Celtic nation.

Perhaps even the North of England would be interested in joining – we already see some people in the North (sometimes with all seriousness) saying they’d like to leave the UK with Scotland if it did secede, so as to escape Tory domination of the south. The current North East, North West and Yorkshire & the Humber regions would be quite welcome – either as three individual states in the confederation, or any other arrangement apart from a solid “Northern England” state (a single state would have a population over twice the size of the island of Ireland, and thus to my mind be too big for the Confederation).

Interestingly, the maximum Celtic Confederation with all of these nations and regions as member states would almost equal the remaining nation of England in terms of population – around 34 million for the Confederation compared to around 37 million in England. This would likely give us equal or near equal representation in the EU (assuming England did not leave the EU) and a similarly sized economy, resulting in two equally strong regional powers in the northwest of Europe.

Still, for all the membership possibilities, the Celtic Confederation may most likely consist of Scotland, Wales, Ireland (either united or divided) and the Isle of Man.

How should the Celtic Confederation be Governed?

They key tenet of the Celtic Confederation is in the name – Confederation. Membership by states would be completely voluntary. New states could join at any time, so long as they were located within or near the traditional area of insular Celtic influence (possibly allowing for extension of membership to Galicia, amongst others), and current states could secede if they so wished or undergo internal secession into multiple states.

Member states would have their own legislative bodies that could be either unicameral or bicameral so long as they were proportionally elected – this would mean, for example, Scotland retaining it’s Parliament and Ireland retaining the Oireachtas. These bodies would have complete autonomy in fiscal, legal and social matters and their own constitutions. The legislative body of the entire Confederation – let’s call it the Celtic Congress – would be unicameral and have responsibility only for the areas of foreign relations, the military, cultural preservation, inter-state relations and infrastructure and the Confederation’s constitution, and be funded by contributions from each member state.

Each state would elect an equal number of delegates via country-wide list proportional representation to the Celtic Congress, which would vary in size between 100 and 200 members depending on the number of states in the Confederation. The Isle of Man and Cornwall would be possible exceptions – though the population of the other would-be states is measured in the millions, the Isle of Man has a population of less than 90,000 and Cornwall is around 520,000. A full representation could be divided between the two as a compromise.

As a confederation, parties in the Celtic Congress would also be federations of state parties, though those federations need not be of identical parties. For example, whilst the Celtic Labour or Celtic Green parties might draw from State Labour/Green parties, the Celtic Civic National party would perhaps draw from the current SNP, Plaid Cymru and SDLP and the Celtic Socialists may draw from both Sinn Fein and the SSP.

The Celtic Confederation would have multiple heads of state and government, in an adaptation of the 7-member Swiss Federal Council. The leader of the largest party (or coalition of parties) in the Congress would be President of the Celtic Confederation and the deputy leader Deputy President of the state they were elected from. Deputy Presidents for other states would be elected by Members of the Celtic Congress (MCC) from their state – in theory, any MCC would be able to stand for that internal ballot, but convention would likely see the leader of the largest party grouping from that state being elected Deputy President.

The role of President would be to represent the Celtic Congress as a whole at the international level (where the participation of multiple heads of state would be cumbersome) and act as the leader of the Celtic Confederal Government. The Deputy Presidents would be empowered to conduct some aspects of foreign policy (for example, lead trade delegations) on behalf of their state and to liaise with the state government to determine state policy with regards to the Confederal Government. The President and Deputy Presidents would act as the collective head of state for the Celtic Confederation.

Other ministers at the federal level – such as Treasury, Defence and Foreign Office – would be selected in the traditional parliamentary manner by the President from the ruling party or coalition subject to approval from parliament.

It seems you’ve given this a lot of thought… Is it at all likely?

Honestly? Not at all. The secession of England would most likely see the rest of the nations of the UK also going their own way – though there’s some ambiguity over what would happen to Northern Ireland. The depth of feeling against joining the Republic amongst the current Unionist community (still in the majority at the moment) could be so strong that without a British Union, Northern Ireland might opt to remain apart from the Republic and become it’s own sovereign state.

So if it’s not really on the table, why discuss it?

Well, mostly because it was fun to do so. The constitution, organs and future of a Celtic Congress has been fleshed out in my head – in more detail than here – simply because it’s a fun way to pass the time.

But perhaps more importantly it may serve as a reminder that in the modern world, the constitutional debate cannot be a binary division between the United Kingdom and an Independent Scotland. The possibility of other partnerships, be they in a full political union or at intergovernmental level, should always be considered.

Much of the discussion so far on Scotland’s partnerships after Independence have been in relation to England and the Scandinavian countries. These are certainly important partnerships to pursue. England would be a major trading partner, is the only country we share a land border with and a nation with which we share enormous cultural ties. The Scandinavian countries present a model worthy of emulation, with peaceful societies, excellent provision of healthcare and education and good health. But those that we have the most in common with, the Celtic nations, receive little consideration.

Though Ireland would be the only other Celtic nation with definite independence, that doesn’t preclude Scotland seeking to maintain/create stronger ties with the other Celtic nations. Wales, though significantly less pro-independence minded than Scotland, may yet go for it. Brittany, Cornwall and Mann, even if not independent, would be well worth engaging with to encourage cultural exchanges and the preservation of Celtic culture.

Certainly, let’s consider our relationship with England and with Scandinavia, let’s even make these our core international partners, but let us not forget our fellow Celts!