An Independence hodgepodge
Posted by Allan in Elections, Independence, Thoughts on May 20, 2012
With the local elections out of the way and (barring any surprise government collapses) no other elections due in Scotland until the European Parliament elections in 2014, those of us with an interest in Scottish politics are going to have to find something else in politics to occupy our time – probably writing wildly speculative posts on all things constitutional and blowing the latest rammy out of all proportion. In that spirit, I’ve got a few thoughts on Independence that have been swirling about my brain but I didn’t have time to write down as I was engaged in mortal combat with my third year exams at Uni.
What I want to achieve with Independence – 6 principles
Independence is not something most supporters want just for the sake of having it – we all have our own vision for what we want to do with that Independence. For my part, that vision becomes increasingly long winded as I add more and more to what is currently a 15,000 word page on this blog. I’ve finally hit on six snappy sounding principles that I want Scotland to live up to – social justice, sustainability, decentralisation, internationalism, non-aggression and being nuclear free. I do not believe the UK currently lives up to any of these nor do I see any likelihood of it doing so anytime soon.
A description of what each of these principles means can be found on that page, but put simply it means I quite fancy voting Green post-Independence. The SNP’s current policy and stated vision for Independence stands up fairly well for all of those principles with the exception of decentralisation, but the Greens meet all of them and do better than the SNP in some, so they currently represent my best bet for the post-Independence elections.
A constituent assembly
When I originally wrote the Independence piece, I just kind of assumed it would be Parliament’s job to write the constitution. It’s only recently, from reading about the (accidental!) constituent assembly that Spain elected during it’s transition to democracy and the more recent Icelandic one, that I realised the constitution should be more open to input from the people. To that end, whilst Parliament would be in charge of negotiating a deal with the UK government, the people of Scotland should get the chance to elect a standalone constituent assembly that can focus on writing our constitution.
Where the Spanish Constituent Cortes of 1977 was purely political (perhaps due to it’s accidental nature – it wasn’t really intended to write a new constitution, but was pressured to do so) the Icelandic Constitutional Assembly of 2010 was non-partisan, elected from the general populace and included people as diverse as farmers and economics professors. I think a mix of both would be most appropriate for the Scottish Constituent Assembly.
To me, a 10%-40%-50% allocation for a parliamentary delegation, non-partisan delegation and party delegation respectively seems about right (the expert that I am). The parliamentary delegation should guarantee one seat for each party in parliament, with the rest being divided between the parties according to their proportion of seats. The non-partisan and party delegations would be directly elected by the people and allow for a good mix of expert experience, citizen participation and political views in crafting the constitution.
Once the constitution passes through the constituent assembly, it would have to be voted on by the Scottish people before it was accepted. Hopefully, a constitution put together by a specifically elected constituent assembly would be most reflective of our views and therefore pass easily.
Enforced Localism
A common criticism of local government elections is that they are often heavily influenced by national parties and policy rather than being decided by local issues as should be the case. That got me to thinking – what if we enforced the distinction between national and local politics by constitutionally excluding national parties from participating in local elections?
I don’t mean to say that national parties and politicians should be excluded totally from local elections, or that every council should have it’s own political parties – instead, parties would register as either “National” or “Local” and people would be entitled to simultaneous membership of one of each. Local parties might cover a historic area – for example, the Ayrshire Democratic Party could stand for election in North, South and East Ayrshire – or even the whole country but contest only local elections, and may choose to associate with an equivalent national party in a manner similar to the relationship between the Bloc Québécois and the Parti Québécois in Canada.
It’s not a perfect solution, for a few reasons. For one, allowing such associations may result in national politics still leaking into local politics – if you know that the Highland Liberal Party is the local associate of the national Scottish Liberal Party who have been doing poorly in government, you might be less inclined to vote for them – but it would theoretically put a lot more power in local hands as there would be no national leadership to dictate policy. In addition, party funding might be also problematic, as totally separate local parties might find it harder to attract donations than would be the case if they were able to use a national party’s resources and so find it harder to maintain staff and run campaigns – but on the other hand, this also means that a rich national party can’t really use that money to influence local election results in their favour.
Still, it’s perhaps something worth looking into – I have found all the bickering over who “won” the local elections and the ensuing mudslinging over who was the nastiest party for going into coalition with that party rather than this party to be incredibly tiresome, and I can’t be the only one. Wouldn’t it be nice if local elections were truly local, with their own local parties, than just another popularity contest for national parties?
Those results…
Here’s my predicted map of Scottish Council control, coloured by largest council grouping;
A bold colour is a party majority, whilst pale colours represent pluralities. Blended colours – represented here by the peach of Midlothian – represent two parties ties.
To break it down, that’s 3 Independent majorities, 1 Independent plurality, 3 Labour and 4 Conservative pluralities, 1 Labour Majority, 6 SNP Majorities, 13 SNP pluralities and one SNP-Labour tie. In terms of seats, I was expecting a massive surge in SNP seats (as many as 500 total) with the potential to take a seat in each of Orkney and Shetland, reasonable gains for the Greens (up to 15 odd), minor losses for Labour (maybe down to 330) and the Tories (around 135) and significant losses for the Lib Dems (less than 80).
Here’s how it actually ended up;
The SNP failed to make the gains I expected in the Northern Isles, though they made up for that by taking three more seats in the Western Isles. Labour not only proved more resilient than expected, but made significant gains – of particular note, in my opinion, are beating the Tories in Dumfries & Galloway and East Renfrewshire and coming top in Aberdeen. I was massively disappointed to see them take majorities in my home council of West Dunbartonshire and cling on in my current abode of Glasgow.
Though the SNP didn’t make the gains I predicted, it was far from a disaster for them. We managed good results in North and East Ayrshire and I was right in predicting majorities for Angus and Dundee. Perth & Kinross was a bit of a disappointment – I can’t believe they didn’t take at least one more seat there – but with the largest contingent of councillors in Scotland, we really can’t complain.
However, I was delighted at the gains made by the Greens – especially their gaining councillors in Stirling, Aberdeenshire and Midlothian. I was disappointed they didn’t squeeze another one into Glasgow but on the whole a fantastic result – given the candidates, perhaps they will overtake the Lib Dems next time!
The Lib Dems result was suitably disastrous, as most of us were expecting – more surprising were the significant losses the Tories suffered. I wasn’t alone in feeling the Tories were already down at the very core of their support and so didn’t see them losing any more than ten councillors – instead, they managed to lose 30, which saw them dealt a savage blow in East Renfrewshire and Dumfries and Galloway.
The final breakdown of councillors is 3 Independent majorities, 2 Independent pluralities, 1 SNP-Independent tie, 3 SNP-Labour ties, 5 SNP pluralities, 2 SNP majorities, 10 Labour pluralities, 4 Labour majorities and 2 Tory pluralities. Seat wise, it was 424 to the SNP, 394 to Labour, 115 to the Tories, 71 to the Lib Dems, 14 Greens, one lone SSP councillor and the rest being made up of Independents and local issue parties.
For comparison’s sake, here is a 2007 map;
After the 2007 election, we had 3 Independent majorities, 3 Independent pluralities, 3 Lib Dem pluralities, 4 SNP pluralities, 3 SNP-Labour ties, 3 Tory pluralities, 1 Tory-Labour tie and 2 Labour majorities and 10 Labour pluralities. Compared to 2007, both Labour and the SNP made significant gains at the expense of the Tories and the Lib Dems.
Though the SNP showing wasn’t as good as expected, I certainly don’t think this election constitutes a Labour “win”. Though Labour have also had excellent results, the gap between the two parties has widened from 15 seats (363 to 348) to 30 (424 to 394) seats since 2007 – that doesn’t suggest to me that the SNP are in any grave danger of getting beaten anytime soon. Indeed, the SNP remain the party with the most representation across Scotland, only lacking councillors in Orkney and Shetland. If anything these elections, taken as a whole, tell us relatively little about Scotland’s preference in terms of SNP or Labour, and a whole lot about our preference when it comes to centre-left parties or a viciously right wing UK government.
Update: The national first preference percentage results have finally been released, showing the SNP a hair ahead of Labour. The (almost) final results are;
SNP – 32.32% (+4.46%), 424 seats (+61)
Labour – 31.39% (+3.24%), 394 seats (+46)
Tory – 13.31% (-2.26%), 115 seats (-28)
Lib Dems – 6.59% (-6.10%), 71 seats (-95)
Greens – 2.20% (+0.16%), 14 seats (+6)
Also making the rounds has been a map showing what wards each party has at least one councillor in. That prompted me to do some calculations to find out how much of the country, as a % of wards, each party covers. Given that the Northern Isles still don’t have any official party councillors, I also worked out a percentage without Orkney and Shetland included.
Total wards / Total less the Northern Isles – 383 / 340
SNP wards – 324 (84.60% / 95.29%)
Labour Wards – 245 (63.97% / 72.06%)
Tory Wards – 107 (27.94% / 31.47%)
Lib Dem Wards – 67 (17.49% / 19.71%)
Green Wards – 14 (3.66% / 4.12%)
If we then take all of this to give us a whopping five ways a party might claim to have “won” the election, the SNP could be considered to have “won” on four counts and Labour on one. The SNP won more votes (32.32% against 31.39%), more seats (424 against 394), made more gains (+61 against +46) and has the widest representation across the country (84.60% of wards against 63.97%). Labour won the most councils (4 majorities & 10 pluralities against 2 majorities & 5 pluralities). Alternatively, you could just say that they both had an excellent election result and leave it at that.
The Council Elections – an (only slightly) educated guess
With this year’s council elections being the first stand alone local elections since the Devolution era, they are perhaps attracting rather more interest amongst political observers than would be the case if they were lumped in with parliamentary elections – though this is likely to have the opposite effect on the average voter, with rather low turnout expected.
Coming a year after their majority win in the Scottish Parliament, these elections will be a major test for the SNP. Many, especially the Tories, have been suggesting the SNP will use a positive result as evidence of support for Independence – and for all that they might deny it at this point, were the SNP to be thumped at the local elections the other parties would themselves be crowing about it showing that Scots favour the Union. As such, there’s rather a lot at stake this year over and above the delivery of local services.
For a bit of fun, I’ve been going through the Councils and making my own predictions of the result. These are only very rough predictions, using the change in support between the 2007 and 2011 parliamentary elections (at individual council level) and educated guesswork from looking at individual ward results and are unlikely to be all that close to the actual result – but then, when are they ever? For the most part, I won’t be predicting which parties will form the council administration as that depends too much on the local situation.
For ease of reading, I’ve split the Councils into four types – City Councils (those which have City in their name), Urban Councils (Most of the councils which share a border with Glasgow or Edinburgh plus heavily industrialised councils such as Inverclyde and Falkirk), Mixed Councils (Councils with a large population centre combined with a large land area with sparse settlement, usually bordering a City or Urban council) and Rural Councils (councils with widely spread populations).
This is also rather a large post, so you might want to search for the following terms (or for an individual council);
- City Councils
- Urban Councils
- Mixed Councils
- Rural Councils
- Short Council Predictions
- Party Result Recaps
City Councils
For obvious reasons, Scotland’s four city councils (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee) will be amongst the most important. With a little over a quarter of Scotland’s population amongst them, winning a city council is a major jewel in any election crown.
Glasgow City Council, the largest in the country, is going to be the big prize in this election with 79 seats up for grabs. One of the few remaining Labour majority councils after the last elections in 2007, when they won 45 seats, the past few months have seen Labour become a minority administration and with their success in Glasgow seats at the last parliamentary election an SNP victory – once unthinkable in Glasgow – seems a real possibility.
My prediction is that Labour will win a plurality of seats, but only by a hair – I expect something in the mid to high 30’s but only 2 or 3 more than the SNP. I think the Greens will remain quite stable – perhaps losing or gaining one seat – and hold the balance of power. I expect that, given Labour’s history in Glasgow, the Greens will either support an SNP minority or form a coalition with the SNP to bring change to the city. The Tories and Lib Dems will be almost irrelevant – at most, they may win 3 seats between them – but might co-operate with the SNP administration to keep Labour out.
City of Edinburgh Council, the capital, will be the next largest prize and has 58 seats. Currently under a Lib Dem led LD-SNP coalition, it’s highly likely the Lib Dem vote will collapse dramatically though they won’t disappear entirely. Both the SNP and Labour are likely to benefit from this collapse, and the Greens may sneak a couple more councillors in – I reckon the Tories will remain quite stable.
Edinburgh will perhaps be the mirror image of Glasgow – I predict that the SNP will just pip Labour to winning the most seats with around 20, but the legacy of SNP participation in the LD led council and their disastrous handling of the Trams project, amongst other things, will see Labour leading the administration in the capital. Together with the Greens they may not have enough seats for a majority, but may function well as a minority council.
In Aberdeen City Council, there are 43 seats. The 2007 election returned an LD-SNP coalition, but various by elections and defections have since seen the leadership of the council switch to an SNP-LD coalition. Like Edinburgh, the Lib Dems are likely to suffer a collapse in their vote but not to the extent that they are wiped out. Both Labour and the SNP should benefit from this collapse and increase their number of councillors, and the Greens may get their first elected councillors if they can get out the vote opposed to the Union Terrace Gardens project.
Though Labour will make gains, the SNP should still win the most seats by a significant margin. The Lib Dems may hold onto just enough seats that the SNP-LD coalition continues. Again, the Tories will likely remain where they are – set to be a running theme in these elections.
Finally, we have Dundee City Council where there are 29 seats to be filled. The city has been under an SNP minority council since 2007, when the SNP won 13 of these seats. The remaining seats are 10 Labour, 3 Tory, 2 Lib Dem and an Independent. Unlike the other cities, the Lib Dems don’t have much a vote here to collapse – Fraser MacPherson, the LD Councillor for the West End ward won the most first preference votes in 2007 and may squeak back in but I can’t see much chance of them retaining their other seat in Strathmarine.
I think the SNP will easily win 15 or 16 seats and thus a majority – in 2007, they got 2 councillors elected in all of the 3-member wards and a repeat performance there would require wins in the three 4-member wards they only got one 1 councillor elected to last time. They should take that former LD seat in Strathmarine, and knock one or two Tories out to take a second seat in the West End and The Ferry wards.
Urban Councils
Let’s start with my old home council of West Dunbartonshire which has 22 seats. In 2007, Labour lost their majority and though the SNP had one less seat they cobbled together a coalition with some Independents. West Dunbartonshire is unique in that is has the only Scottish Socialist Councillor in the country, Jim Bollan. The Lib Dems don’t stand in West Dunbartonshire and the Tories are non-entities.
Come May, I think the SNP will pick up a couple of seats at the expense of either the Independents or Labour but narrowly miss a majority at 11 seats. Jim Bollan’s seat is probably safe thanks to his popularity amongst and the votes of the people of Renton (one of the villages in the Leven Ward) who have strong socialist leanings.
Moving next door to East Dunbartonshire Council and the 24 seats there. Currently a Lab-Con minority coalition, the SNP demonstrated the often peculiar nature of the Single Transferrable Vote in 2007 when they got all 8 of their councillors – and thus a plurality – despite coming third in terms of first preferences. The Lib Dems were badly hit thanks to STV, returning only 3 of their previous councillors.
Despite this, the SNP aren’t standing any more candidates in East Dunbartonshire this year which means that the likely beneficiary of any collapse in the LD vote will be Labour who may consequently manage to get 9 seats to the SNP’s 8. The two members from the East Dunbartonshire Independent Alliance should be comfortably re-elected and again the Tories likely won’t go anywhere.
Crossing Glasgow to find another affluent eastern shire we come to East Renfrewshire Council, with 20 seats. East Renfrewshire is the lone Tory stronghold in the central belt, with the Tories comfortably winning 7 seats and 34.3% of the vote there in 2007, though Labour matched their seat count. The sole Lib Dem councillor is sitting precariously and will likely lose his seat. In the absolute best case for the SNP, the other three parties will lose a seat each to the SNP resulting in a 6-6-6 split plus 2 independents. However, I think they will probably only pick up that seat from the Lib Dems and the Tories will remain top in East Renfrewshire.
Plain old Renfrewshire Council has 40 seats. In 2007, the SNP and Labour were neck and neck with 17 seats, with the 4 Lib Dem councillors opting for a coalition with the SNP and 2 Tories filling the last seats in the chamber. If the Lib Dem vote collapses, they may hold their seat in Paisley East and Ralston where they had a slender win over the SNP’s top candidate in First Preference votes but will lose the other three, which will probably fall 2-1 to the SNP and Labour. If the SNP can equalise in Johnston South, Elderslie and Howwood ward which currently has three Labour councillors they will control half the council.
Inverclyde Council has 20 seats. A former Lib Dem stronghold (is it just me, or did the Lib Dems really suffer for their introduction of STV?) turned Labour, it’s very likely to stay that way in May. A collapse in the LD vote is likely to benefit the SNP the most, but Labour may pick up another seat to take half the council.
Outside of Glasgow, North Lanarkshire Council was the only other council to retain a Labour majority, where they held 40 of it’s 70 seats – in fact, Labour almost won a majority of first preferences too, with 49.6%. Much like Glasgow, the SNP are by far the largest opposition party with only a token councillor from the Lib Dems and the Tories with Independents holding the remaining five. I can see Labour shedding a few councillors to the SNP, but I think North Lanarkshire will have the distinction of being the only Labour majority council in Scotland though that majority will be much slimmer – perhaps 36 or 37 seats.
Moving across now to the Edinburgh satellites in the Lothians, starting with the 32 seats in West Lothian Council. West Lothian was another narrow Labour win in 2007 with only a fraction of a % and 1 seat between them and the SNP. West Lothian lacks any Lib Dem councillors and has only one Tory though local issue party Action to Save St John’s Hospital brings some political diversity with three seats – and with the two extra candidates they are standing this year, they could muddy the waters. Without any real knowledge of the situation I can’t say what the impact of the local party will be, but I do expect Labour to lose a couple of seats to the SNP.
East Lothian Council’s 23 seats ended up rather evenly split last time, with 7 each to Labour and the SNP and 6 to the Lib Dems. Few of the Lib Dem seats seem like they will be safe from the likely collapse, though they may hold onto one. Like many councils, if there is a large collapse both the SNP and Labour will be the ones to capitalise on it though I suspect it will be the SNP who pocket most of the seats.
Midlothian Council was until recently Labour’s other majority council in Scotland, with 10 of 18 seats – though it only reached that number with the defection of a Lib Dem councillor. As has consistently been the case, the Lib Dem seats are anything but secure and will probably fall to the SNP. With the SNP standing two candidates in each ward this time around, they will be a real challenge to Labour. I predict that the council might end up evenly split with 9 apiece for Labour and the SNP, though the SNP will win the popular vote.
Falkirk Council, home of Tory-battering MP Eric Joyce, has 32 seats. Labour won a narrow victory in 2007 with 14 seats to the SNP’s 13, with the Tories and a few Independent councillors making up the numbers. Since then, the SNP won an absolute majority of votes in both Scottish Parliament constituencies in Falkirk, and with the endorsement of the popular local former MP and MSP Dennis Canavan may do very well in Falkirk. In fact, I predict they will manage to just scrape a majority.
Mixed Councils
The bonnie environs of Ayrshire are home to three of Scotland’s "mixed” councils. East Ayrshire Council was another one of those with an even split between SNP and Labour at 14 councillors each out of the 32 available with three Tories and an Independent making up the rest. In what will come as no surprise, I’m expecting the Tories to stay about where they are. Given Labour has three councillors of the four in two wards, I think that they will probably lose the third councillor on each to the SNP, bumping the SNP up to half of the seats on the council.
South Ayrshire Council is another one of those rare Tory plurality councils with 12 of the 30 seats. Labour with 9, the SNP with 8 (their entire slate) and an Independent make up the rest of the council. With the SNP standing more candidates this time, I expect them to pinch at least one seat off each of the other two parties to become the second largest party on the council, with the Tories holding onto their plurality by a whisker.
North Ayrshire Council is the only one of the Ayrshire councils with Lib Dem representation amongst their 30 councillors, though only two of them. Labour won the last time with 12 seats to the SNP’s 8 along with 3 Tories and 5 Independents. Again, the Lib Dems will probably lose their seats and the Tories remain mostly static, with the SNP likely to pick up a seat or two from Labour in addition to those from the Lib Dems, making them the largest party on the council.
Stirling Council has 22 seats. Labour won last time with 8 of those seats to the SNP’s 7, though the SNP went on to form a minority administration. 3 Lib Dems and a Tory make up the rest of the council. Surprise surprise, I don’t see the Lib Dems being returned or much of a dent being made in the Tories. Perhaps I’m being a bit hopeful, but with the Greens making a strong showing in Stirling in the Parliamentary elections (over 5% of the vote), I’ve got a feeling they might manage to take a seat in Stirling, whilst the SNP gain the other Lib Dem seats to make them the largest party.
Perth & Kinross Council has 41 seats. Last time, the SNP won the most councillors by a significant margin – 18 to the 12 for the Tories – with the Lib Dems returning a respectable 8 and Labour showing their weakness in rural Scotland taking only 3 councillors, all of them in the city of Perth. In a welcome break to the pattern, I’m not expecting a total Lib Dem wipeout in Perth & Kinross and think the Tories are going to lose a few of their seats. What seats the Lib Dems do lose, along with the Tory losses, are likely to go straight to the SNP and I predict the SNP will win just enough for a majority of seats.
South Lanarkshire Council’s 67 seats show much greater diversity than their Northern counterpart splitting 30-24-2-8-3 to Labour, the SNP, Lib Dems, Tories and Independents. With their success in many South Lanarkshire constituencies in 2011 and an increase in council candidates, I think the SNP will reverse the current Labour-SNP seat share and perhaps take a couple of additional seats from the Tories. If they are lucky, the Lib Dems might manage to hold onto one of their seats.
Fife Council has 78 seats which are presently quite evenly divided between Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems with 24, 23 and 21 respectively, with the Tories and Independents each on 5 seats. As a council with a large Lib Dem contingent, I’m expecting them to be quite hard hit, losing as many as half of their councillors with many of their seats falling to the SNP and a few to Labour. A couple of the Tories and Independents look like they might be easily dislodged, too. I predict that the SNP will end up with a seat share in the low 30’s whilst Labour pick up a few seats to take them to the high 20’s.
Rural Councils
Let’s start with the easy ones. Both Shetland Islands Council and Orkney Islands Council currently lack party councillors, with 22 and 21 Independents respectively. This year, the SNP are the only major party standing candidates in these councils with 2 in Shetland and 4 in Orkney. I think chances are good the SNP might pick up at least one councillor in both councils, but obviously the councils will remain under Independent control.
The Comhairle nan Eilean Siar (Western Isles) is also dominated by Independents, though both Labour and the SNP have representation on the council with 2 and 4 of the 31 seats. I think the SNP might manage to get a couple more councillors elected, but again, the Western Isles are going to remain dominated by Independents.
Highland Council is another largely Independent council, though they do not have a majority there – there are a total of 35 Independents out of the 80 councillors in total. The Lib Dems and the SNP have significant representation with 21 and 17 councillors, whilst Labour have 7. Once again, I’m expecting the Lib Dems to shed a good number of their councillors, many of whom are going to go straight to bolstering the SNP ranks on the council. A few Independents may also go and Labour and the Tories may pick up a seat or two but I think most of the movement will be from Lib Dem to SNP. I’m also hopeful that the Greens will manage a councillor somewhere, as they won over 5% of the votes at the last election – though with only four candidates standing, that may be a vain hope.
Moray Council’s 26 seats also sit largely in the hands of Independents, who hold 12. The SNP hold 9 with the Tories and Labour only having 3 and 2 respectively. The 9 the SNP won represent their entire slate of candidates – this time around they are standing 16. The SNP are so strong in Moray I predict that they will take a majority, getting 14 or 15 of their 16 councillors elected, largely at the expense of the Independent group.
Argyll & Bute Council is the last council in the Highlands and Islands area and, like the others, has a strong Independent presence with 16 of the 36 seats. The SNP form the largest party grouping with 10, whilst the Lib Dems and Tories have 7 and 3. SNP support in the council area increased a fair bit between 2007 and 2011, so I think they will pick up a good few more seats. As you might expect, most of those will probably come from Lib Dem losses, but we might see a couple of the Independents go too – enough that the SNP will be the largest grouping in the council.
The Scottish Borders Council has 34 seats. The largest grouping are the Tories with 11 seats, followed by the Lib Dems and the SNP on 10 and 6. There are 5 Independents and the Borders Party is represented by 2 councillors. The Borders party may muddy the waters a bit, but I expect that the SNP will pick up a few councillors at the Lib Dems expense – the Borders are quite a strong Lib Dem area, so I don’t anticipate a complete collapse. I predict that the Tories will hold onto their status as largest party, though the SNP might be uncomfortably close.
Neighbouring Dumfries & Galloway Council is another Tory stronghold, with 18 of the 47 seats. Labour are next with 14 seats, the SNP have 10, the Lib Dems have 3 and there are 2 Independents. The Lib Dems may be reduced to a single representative and the Tories may shed a few seats with both Labour and the SNP picking them up. The Tories will likely remain the largest party though I don’t think Labour will be very far off.
Angus Council’s 29 seats used to be dominated by the SNP until they were pushed out by an “everyone but the SNP” alliance consisting of 6 Independents, 5 Tories, 3 Lib Dems and 2 Labour councillors. This time around, I think the SNP will manage to win a majority – probably by poaching two of the Lib Dem seats and perhaps knocking one of the Independents out too.
Clackmannanshire Council, or the Wee County, has 18 seats. Labour and the SNP dominate with 8 and 7 councillors respectively, with a single Lib Dem, Tory and Independent making up the numbers. The Lib Dem is likely to lose their seat, but the other two lone councillors look much more secure. There are two wards where Labour’s second councillor is looking uncomfortably close to being beaten by an SNP candidate and I predict that is what will happen, with the SNP creeping to a narrow majority of 10 seats.
Last but certainly not least are Aberdeenshire Council’s 68 seats. Though the SNP won a significant lead in First Preferences in 2007, the Lib Dems won 24 seats to their 22. There are 14 Tories and 8 Independents, but surprisingly no Labour councillors. This time around, the Lib Dems are only standing 21 candidates so have forfeited three seats. I expect they will lose a good few more to the SNP on top of these, which should push the SNP into the 30’s, though they’ll still need support from another party to form an administration.
Short Council Predictions
Pale Party Colour; Plurality – 21 councils
Bold Party Colour; Majority – 10 councils
Blended Party Colours; 2 party tie – 1 council
- Aberdeen City Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small gains
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Greens; may make small gains
- Independents; little to no change
- Aberdeenshire Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; none
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- Angus Council
- SNP; majority
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; small losses.
- Argyll & Bute Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; none
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; small losses
- Clackmannanshire Council
- SNP; majority
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- Dumfries & Galloway
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; small gains
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; plurality
- Independents; little to no change
- Dundee City Council
- SNP; majority
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; small losses
- Independents; may lose seat
- East Ayrshire Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- East Dunbartonshire Council
- SNP; no change, may win popular vote
- Labour; plurality
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- East Lothian Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small gains
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- East Renfrewshire Council
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; plurality
- Independents; little to no change
- City of Edinburgh Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small gains
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Greens; small gains
- Labour led administration likely
- Falkirk Council
- SNP; majority
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- Fife Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small gains
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; small losses
- Independents; small losses
- Glasgow City Council
- SNP; significant gains
- Labour; plurality
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Greens; small gains
- SNP led administration likely
- Highland Council
- SNP; significant gains
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; small gains
- Independents; plurality
- Greens; may win a seat
- Inverclyde Council
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; plurality
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- Midlothian Council
- SNP; half seats, win popular vote
- Labour; half seats
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; none
- Moray Council
- SNP; majority
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; small losses
- Comhairle nan Eilean Siar
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; none
- Independents; plurality
- North Ayrshire Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- North Lanarkshire Council
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; majority
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- Orkney Islands Council
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; none
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; none
- Independents; plurality
- Perth & Kinross Council
- SNP; majority
- Labour; little to no change
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; small losses
- Renfrewshire Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; little to no change
- Scottish Borders Council
- SNP; significant gains
- Labour; none
- Lib Dems; significant losses
- Tories; plurality
- Independents; little to no change
- Borders Party; little to no change
- Shetland Islands Council
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; none
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; none
- Independents; plurality
- South Ayrshire Council
- SNP; small gains
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; plurality
- Independents; little to no change
- South Lanarkshire Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; small losses
- Tories; small losses
- Independents; little to no change
- Stirling Council
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; lose all
- Tories; little to no change
- Greens; may gain a councillor
- West Dunbartonshire
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; none
- Independents; little to no change
- SSP; little to no change
- West Lothian
- SNP; plurality
- Labour; small losses
- Lib Dems; none
- Tories; little to no change
- Independents; little to no change
- Action to Save St John’s Hospital; little to no change
Party Result Recaps
- Scottish National Party
- The SNP should make significant gains in these elections.
- Majority in 6 councils – Angus, Clackmannanshire, Dundee, Falkirk, Moray and Perth & Kinross.
- Plurality in 13 councils – Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, Argyll & Bute, East Ayrshire, East Lothian, City of Edinburgh, Fife, North Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian
- Equal seat share but win popular vote in 1 council – Midlothian.
- Less seats but win popular vote in 1 council – East Dunbartonshire.
- Largest organised party in all 4 Independent dominated councils – Highland, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Orkney and Shetland.
- Labour Party
- The Labour party will have a mixed election, making small gains in some places and small losses elsewhere. On the whole, they should not lose too many seats.
- Majority in 1 council – North Lanarkshire.
- Plurality in 3 councils – East Dunbartonshire, Glasgow and Inverclyde.
- Equal seat share in 1 council – Midlothian.
- Conservative and Unionist Party
- The Tories are unlikely to see much movement – may lose a seat or two here and gain a seat or two there. On the whole, their losses may be in single digits.
- Plurality in 4 councils – Borders, Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire and South Ayrshire.
- Liberal Democrats
- The Lib Dems are likely to see significant losses in this election – local elections they may be, people will still feel utterly betrayed by the Lib Dems and their vote has atrophied over the past two years.
- The Lib Dems will no longer have a plurality in any council.
- Scottish Green Party
- The Greens will always find it hard to make any headway against the major parties, even under the Single Transferrable Vote system, but I think the Greens may gain a few extra seats this election.
- The Greens are too small to have a plurality on any council, but may form part of a governing coalition in Glasgow.
The Catalan Comparison
Posted by Allan in Independence, Thoughts on April 3, 2012
The UK’s status as a state consisting of multiple nations in political union is far from unique – the processes that created the modern so-called “nation states” in Europe often saw the agglomeration of many small nations into larger nations through political and dynastic union or military conquest. Spain is a fantastic example of such a country – it consists, at the very least, of the nations of Castile (the “core” of Spain, where the language we know as “Spanish” originates), Andalusia (Andalucia, where many of the traditions we consider to be Spanish, such as flamenco and bullfighting, originated), Galicia (Galiza), Aragon, Catalonia (Catalunya), Valencia, the Basque Country (Euskadi) and the Canary Isles (Islas Canarias.) The Balaeric Islands, to the east of Valencia, also consider themselves a nation within Spain, but are not indicated as such in the map below;
The Nations within Spain
There are many separatist movements within the Spanish nations, but the strongest are those in the Basque Country and Catalonia. The Catalan Independence movement in particular is often of interest to pro-Independence Scots, and vice versa, as both have made significant leaps in recent years. In fact the polling in Catalonia in recent years has been remarkably similar to what we currently see in Scotland right up until about a couple of years ago, when Independence opinion began to spike.
You can find a long list of polls by different organisations on this Wikipedia page, but I’ve selected a few to show how opinion currently stands and how it has changed from a selection of the polls by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO). CEO runs multiple polls over the course of each year, and a handy (Catalan Language) chart can be found under the numbers, but I’ve produced a simplified version here using the first poll from each year. (I’m no Peat Worrier, but I felt like a little bit of charting…)
When offered multiple options, we can see that in recent years Catalan opinion has converged in the same way it has in Scotland – a very close three way split between Independence, more powers (confederation in Catalonia’s case) and the status quo. There’s also a small hard-line group that want to see Catalonia reduced to a “region” rather than a “nation” within Spain – the closest Scottish equivalent would be the fringe in favour of abolishing the Scottish Parliament. It can be seen that support for the status quo has dropped quite dramatically since 2010 – from 38.2% to 27.8%, whilst support for Independence has increased from 19.4% to 29.0%, putting Independence ahead of the status quo for the first time since these polls began.
Just like in Scotland, a clear majority of the population favour increasing the powers available to Catalonia – so how would they vote in a single question Independence referendum? In tandem with it’s last three polls, CEO has asked exactly that question.
Interestingly this poll counted the number of people who would abstain from the vote – I don’t know how exactly the poll was conducted, so abstainers could simply be counted as anyone who did not say they would definitely vote, or they may actually be people who have stated their intention not to vote at all. Whatever the case, we can weed them out for a more accurate picture of how the actual result might look if a referendum was held;
With the abstentions and the like removed, we’re left with an overwhelming opinion in favour of Independence – almost 2:1. It seems that when faced with a single question, a large number of people who would otherwise vote in favour of a confederal arrangement instead plump for Independence – more change than desired is perhaps preferable to no change at all to such people. Yet in a potentially worrying precedent for our friends on the Pro-Union side of the debate, this has been a sudden increase – according to some of the other polls on the page, which presented “Yes/No/Other” options to respondents, until about mid 2010 Independence sentiment was sitting in the 30’s whilst Union sentiment sat comfortable in the 40’s. Again, these figures are extraordinarily similar to what we are seeing in Scotland – two years before a referendum!
For all the similarities between our nations and the astonishing parallel in opinion polling, there are also significant differences that mean we should be wary of drawing unqualified comparisons. For example, the linguistic situation (language being an extremely important aspect of culture) in Catalonia is far better than here in Scotland. Whilst very few Scots can speak Gaelic and almost none of us speak the Scots language in it’s “pure” form anymore, 5.7 million of the 7.8 million people in Catalonia can speak Catalan – and a further 800,000 can understand the language, something that no doubt helps reinforce independentist sentiment.
Politically, the situation is almost completely different. In the UK, the UK Government opposes Independence but accepts the Scottish people’s right to decide the matter for themselves via a referendum. In Spain, though it recognised the right to internal self-determination decades before the UK, the constitution explicitly states that the country is “indivisible” and so central government will not – in fact, cannot – allow an Independence referendum to be held in Catalonia or anywhere else. In spite of this, since 2009 informal referendums have been held all over Catalonia at municipality level. Though turnout has been low and they have been mostly ignored by pro-Union voters, they will have kept the issue high on the agenda. In addition, in June 2010 the Constitutional Court of Spain rewrote or otherwise altered a number of the articles of Catalonia’s 2006 Statute of Autonomy which has perhaps acted as a catalyst for the rising support for Independence.
Words of caution aside, Catalonia does present a heartening example for Pro-Independence campaigners – it shows that, if the situation is just right, opinion can shift extremely rapidly and by significant amounts.
Stooshies of the week: Monarchism and the Northern Isles
Posted by Allan in Holyrood, Independence, Rants, Thoughts, Westminster on March 21, 2012
What would Scotland be without at least one stooshie per week about Independence? Well, already Independent probably, but you know what I mean. I start to get a bit anxious if there hasn’t been one in a given week – it makes me worry that a coherent strategy is being formulated. This week, the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee speech once again sparked off debate on the SNP’s policy on the monarchy, whilst the Lib Dem MSPs for Orkney and Shetland – you remember the Lib Dems, don’t you? Lost 11 seats at the last election, and had their majorities slashed in the only two constituencies they did retain – have been following the lead of Lord Caithness and stoking the fires of Northern Secession.
With regards to the SNP and their policy on the monarchy, there are two debates to be had. First of all, should their stated policy of retaining the Queen as Head of State after Independence be used as an argument against Independence? As far as I’m concerned, no. I am all for a republic as a matter of principle, but in practice the monarch has little real political power. As many will point out, countries like Canada or Jamaica are no less Independent despite having the Queen as their head of state. So if it gets more people on board with Independence, then I’ve no huge objection to this policy.
Let’s not forget that the Queen is by this point a very old lady – even if she matches her mother’s extraordinary lifespan, she’ll only be around until 2028. The current Prime Ministers of both Jamaica and Australia have made it clear they believe the death of the Queen to be an appropriate time for their countries to become republic. If we look across the sea to our Celtic brethren in Ireland, we see that retention of the monarchy is not eternal. It took from becoming a dominion in 1922 to a new constitution in 1937 for the monarch to be stripped of most of their roles – and until 1948 for Ireland to explicitly declare itself a republic. I see no real reason why Scotland shouldn’t be similar – maintaining the monarchy for a time to smooth the transition to Independence then becoming a republic when auld Lizzie dies. As I’ve said many a time, I’d rather have an Independent Kingdom of Scotland than a United Republic of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Change doesn’t need to happen in one big lump – it can happen as a process too, and there’s no point rejecting the process in the vague hopes of getting a big lump of it!
The other debate, which is much more serious, is whether it was right for the SNP to change policy from “holding a referendum on the issue” to “we’ll keep the Queen.” I have to say no. Whilst I do support the policy on the grounds of making Independence easier, it’s a policy change that appears to have been decided unilaterally by Alex Salmond without any debate within the party. That is not right, nor is it healthy. With Independence so close, the SNP has basically closed ranks and suppressed any dissent in the hopes of avoiding any public divisions that may threaten their chances of winning the referendum. That’s fine in itself, the SNP as a party is all about internal compromise, but we should have had some proper debate before we compromised on this matter.
On the subject of the Northern Isles, I already talked a little bit about their situation when discussing the problem with partition. I have no problem with self-determination for the Northern Isles and for the most part I think other supporters of Scottish Independence feel the same – though there are perhaps a few that are comically “English” in their reaction, in that they have reacted much like many English people have to Scottish Independence, which is to ask rather dejectedly “You want to leave us? But… but why?” The problem I have is that every time the self-determination of the Northern Isles comes up the first thing that any Unionist says is “what if they want to stay part of the UK?”
The argument is that Orkney and Shetland feel distant from the Government in Edinburgh who they feel often neglect their needs. That’s a perfectly legitimate thing to say. But if they aren’t keen on Edinburgh because it’s distant, how can the even more distant and more self absorbed London be any better at governing them? In Holyrood, they have 2 MSPs out of 129 (in my preference for an expanded Independent Parliament, that would be 2 out of 160). In Westminster, if they were lucky enough to get their own individual seats, they would have 2 MPs out of 550. I find it very hard to believe that many islanders would rather this was the case. Westminster might appear to offer a nice deal on extra powers should these isles stay in the Union, but is anyone stupid enough to think that they want them for any more than their oil? It’s certainly not because of any real kinship with the islanders!
We need to remember the question that is going to be asked of people across Scotland is not “do you want your little part of Scotland to become Independent” but “Do you agree Scotland should be an independent country?” We cannot, and should not, partition the country based on the result of an Independence referendum.
It’s also daft to suggest that without their share of the oil, the case for Independence is fatally undermined. As stated in the Guardian article, around a quarter of current Scottish Oil Revenues come from the fields near Orkney and Shetland. That’s by no means a deathblow for Independence – it just means we will not be quite as well off as we otherwise would, we’d still be perfectly viable as a country.
Some of the oil fields in the North Sea – I added the Red Line to show the approximate maritime border between Scotland and England, and the Blue line is a very rough guess at a Scotland – Northern Isles border.
On the other hand, suggestions of a renegotiated relationship between Scotland and the Isles present an idea well worth pursuing. As I said in my previous article, the Northern Isles do indeed have a strong claim to self-determination. I support an increase in responsibilities for all local authorities, but for Orkney and Shetland in particular I believe that their councils should receive an extension in their powers to include areas that would otherwise be under national government such as healthcare.
Something I think would be a good idea is setting up an “oil grant” for the islands that would see them receiving a certain amount of the oil revenues every year, on top of the budget for their local authorities. At least whilst oil revenues are still quite high, perhaps something along the lines of £500 per head of the population – which would work out at approximately £10 million for Orkney and £11 million for Shetland – could be made available each year. The grant could be made with a condition that at least a quarter of it be saved or invested to provide the isles with a long-term “oil legacy” for long beyond the oil running out, with the rest being available for use in community projects, in schemes to boost tourism to the isles and so on. This could operate in a manner similar to the existing Shetland Charitable Trust.
Should the development of tidal power really take off around Orkney, I would expect such grants from central government to continue from that revenue source. Indeed, the idea of “community payback” where the rural communities that will be at the heart of Scotland’s renewable revolution receive a share of the revenues is something that should become a core government policy in an Independent Scotland.
On the whole, I think that these two things have a bit of a desperate feel to them when brought up by Unionist politicians. That’s not to say they should be dismissed out of hand as scaremongering or mischief making – such arguments do help to identify areas where real debate needs to occur, and we need to approach them in a mature way.